How to pick lottery numbers in the UK - random vs patterns, what do you do?
-
Been playing the lottery for years and I'm still torn between going completely random or trying to spot patterns. Do you lot stick to the same numbers every week or mix it up?
I've been looking into how to pick lottery numbers UK style - some people swear by birthdays, others say go for the least drawn numbers. Then there's the camp that says it's all bollocks and you should just close your eyes and tick boxes.
What's your strategy? And which lottery gives you the best bang for your buck in terms of odds?
-
Mate, I've been doing this for 15 years and here's the truth - it's all random. The balls don't have memory. That said, I always play the same 6 numbers because if they ever came up and I hadn't played them that week, I'd never forgive myself.
For best UK lottery odds, you want to look at the smaller games. EuroMillions might have massive jackpots but your chances are astronomical.
-
@betting_pro That's exactly the psychological trap they want you in! Playing the same numbers week after week.
I go completely random every time. Use the Lucky Dip or just close my eyes and pick. The way I see it, 1-2-3-4-5-6 has exactly the same chance as any other combination. People just think it looks 'wrong' because our brains aren't wired to understand true randomness.
-
Right, let me settle this with some proper maths. For those wondering how to choose lottery numbers UK style, here's the actual probability:
For the main Lotto (6 from 59): P = C(59,6) = 59!/(6!(59-6)!) = 45,057,474
So your odds are 1 in 45,057,474 regardless of which 6 numbers you pick. Whether it's 1-2-3-4-5-6 or your gran's birthday mixed with your lucky numbers - identical odds.
The only strategy that makes mathematical sense is playing the games with better odds, not picking 'better' numbers.
-
Here's where I disagree with the pure random approach - not about the odds, those are fixed - but about prize sharing.
If you pick popular combinations (birthdays, anniversaries), you're more likely to share your jackpot with others who picked the same 'meaningful' numbers. Go for numbers above 31 to avoid the birthday crowd.
Still won't increase your chances of winning, but might increase what you take home if you do win.
-
@casino_dan Brilliant point about the prize sharing! Never thought of that angle.
I've been tracking the frequency of drawn numbers for about 2 years now (yes, I know it's pointless but it's become a hobby). Some numbers do come up more often, but the sample size is nowhere near big enough to be statistically significant.
Currently playing Thunderball mostly - much better odds than the main draw.
-
You're all overthinking this massively. I've got a system that's worked for me:
- Pick 3 numbers under 31 (birthdays, anniversaries)
- Pick 3 numbers over 31 (avoiding the birthday crowd like @casino_dan said)
- Stick with them for exactly 10 weeks
- If nothing, completely random selection for the next 10 weeks
- Repeat
Has it won me millions? No. But I won £1,500 last year so something's working!
-
@sarah_g That's just survivorship bias though isn't it? You won £1,500 and attributed it to your 'system', but how much have you spent over the years?
I play occasionally but only when there's a rollover. No point playing when the jackpot's at the minimum - if I'm going to throw money away on 45 million to 1 odds, might as well be for a massive prize.
Thunderball and Set For Life have much more reasonable odds if you actually want a realistic chance of winning something decent.
-
Been lurking on this thread and had to jump in. You want to know the real secret to lottery number selection? It doesn't bloody matter!
I spent 3 years analyzing historical draws, looking for patterns, hot and cold numbers, all that nonsense. Won absolutely nothing significant. Then last month I let my 8-year-old pick the numbers by throwing darts at a board. Won £180.
The house always wins, but sometimes they let you have a small taste to keep you coming back.
-
@tom_slots Your 8-year-old might be onto something! Kids don't overthink it.
But here's a comparison of actual UK lottery odds for those asking about best UK lottery odds:
Game Jackpot Odds Secondary Prize Ticket Price Lotto 1 in 45,057,474 £1,750 (5+bonus) £2 EuroMillions 1 in 139,838,160 £500k+ (5 numbers) £2.50 Thunderball 1 in 8,060,598 £5,000 (5 numbers) £1 Set For Life 1 in 15,339,390 £10k/month £1.50 Thunderball's your best bet for actually winning something.
-
That table is gold @betting_pro! Shows exactly why I've switched to Thunderball recently.
But can we talk about the real elephant in the room? How many of you have actually calculated how much you've spent vs won over the years? I did this exercise last month and it was... sobering.
15 years of playing: roughly £3,200 spent
Total winnings: £420Still play occasionally because someone's got to win eventually, right? RIGHT?!
-
@lucy_wins Ouch, that's brutal but probably typical for most of us. I refuse to calculate mine - some things are better left unknown!
What gets me is people who play the same numbers religiously for decades. The sunk cost fallacy is strong with lottery players. "I can't change my numbers now, what if they come up next week?"
It's like being in an abusive relationship with a random number generator.
-
Brilliant discussion everyone! @mike_bet's maths really put things in perspective, and that odds table from @betting_pro is exactly what I was looking for.
So the consensus seems to be:
- Numbers don't matter mathematically
- Avoid birthday numbers to reduce prize sharing
- Thunderball offers the best realistic odds
- We're all probably losing money long-term but hey ho!
Think I'll stick with my current random selection but switch more funds to Thunderball. At least the odds of winning SOMETHING are vaguely achievable.
-
Just found this thread and it's exactly what I needed! Been wondering how to pick lottery numbers UK style since I moved here from abroad.
One question though - do any of you use those lottery apps that claim to analyze patterns? Keep seeing ads for them but they seem like snake oil to me.
Also, is there a maximum number of tickets you can buy for one draw? Theoretically, if you had £45 million lying around, could you just buy every possible combination for the main Lotto?
-
@newbie_casino Those apps are absolute garbage. They're selling the illusion of control over pure randomness.
As for buying every combination - theoretically yes, but practically impossible. You'd need to fill out over 45 million tickets manually or find a system that accepts that many online entries. Plus, if someone else wins and you have to split the jackpot, you've just lost £45 million!
There was actually a group that did this successfully in Virginia in 1992, but lotteries have since made it much harder to pull off.
-
@newbie_casino Welcome to the UK lottery madness!
Those pattern apps are just modern snake oil. If there was a reliable pattern, don't you think the lottery companies would have figured it out by now?
I tried one for 3 months - it kept suggesting numbers based on 'frequency analysis' and 'hot streaks'. Won absolutely nothing. My random selections have done just as well (which is to say, not very well at all).
-
Reading through this thread again and it's struck me how we're all looking for patterns and systems in something that's designed to be completely random. It's like trying to find meaning in chaos.
Maybe that's the real addiction - not the possibility of winning, but the illusion that we can somehow crack the code. We're all amateur mathematicians convinced we can beat a system designed by actual mathematicians to be unbeatable.
Philosophical crisis aside, I'm still buying my Thunderball ticket this week. Because I'm only human.
-
@bonushunter1 That got deep quickly! But you're absolutely right about the illusion of control.
I think we all know the odds are terrible and we're basically throwing money away, but there's something about having those numbers that makes us feel like we're 'in the game'.
Just bought my tickets for tonight's draw. Same random selection as always, because I'm apparently incapable of learning from this thread!
-
Anyone else check this thread after every draw to see if any of us have won big?
No? Just me then...
Still religiously avoiding birthday numbers and playing Thunderball twice a week. The dream lives on!