Which UK lottery actually has the best odds? I did the maths so you don't have to
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Alright folks, spent my Saturday evening doing what normal people definitely don't do - calculating the exact odds for every major UK lottery game because I was curious about which uk national lottery game has the best odds.
Spoiler alert: it's not what you think. The main Lotto isn't even close to being the best uk lottery odds available. Here's what I found:
- EuroMillions: 1 in 139,838,160 (jackpot)
- Lotto: 1 in 45,057,474 (jackpot)
- Set For Life: 1 in 15,339,390 (top prize)
- Thunderball: 1 in 8,060,598 (top prize)
- EuroMillions HotPicks: 1 in 834,398 (Pick 5)
- Lotto HotPicks: 1 in 834,398 (Pick 5)
But here's the kicker - if you're looking at ANY prize tier, Thunderball gives you 1 in 13 chance of winning something. That's mental good compared to EuroMillions at 1 in 13.
Thoughts? Anyone else nerdy enough to have worked this out before?
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Finally someone else who gets it! I've been banging on about Thunderball for ages. The lottery with best odds uk players can access isn't always about the biggest jackpots.
Thunderball's £500k top prize might seem small compared to EuroMillions, but you're actually 17 times more likely to win it. Plus that 1 in 13 for any prize is genuinely decent.
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@betting_pro This is brilliant work mate! Though I'd argue you need to factor in the prize distribution too. Sure, Thunderball has better odds, but most of those 1 in 13 wins are just £3.
What about the Health Lottery? Different odds entirely and often overlooked when people discuss lottery best odds uk.
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@sarah_g Good shout on Health Lottery! Let me break this down properly:
Expected Value = (Prize Amount × Probability of Winning) - Cost of Ticket
For Thunderball: EV = (£500,000 × 1/8,060,598) + (£5,000 × 1/620,046) + ... - £1 = -£0.50 approximately
For Health Lottery: EV = (£100,000 × 1/2,118,760) + (£1,000 × 1/47,416) + ... - £1 = -£0.52 approximately
So mathematically, Thunderball still edges it even accounting for prize distribution. The key is that coefficient of variation in the payout structure.
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This is why I stick to scratch cards. At least with a £5 scratchie you know roughly what the RTP is (usually around 65-70%). These number lotteries are just hope taxes with extra steps.
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@mike_bet Scratch cards though? Come on mate, you might as well just set your fivers on fire. At least lottery tickets give you that dopamine hit twice a week when the draw happens.
Plus @betting_pro's analysis shows there IS strategy involved if you pick the right game.
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Can we talk about Set For Life though? £10k a month for 30 years works out to £3.6 million total. That's actually better value than most jackpots when you consider the time value of money and inflation.
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@lucy_wins Set For Life is interesting but that 30-year commitment feels like being married to the lottery. What if you want a lump sum to invest? The annuity structure limits your options massively.
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@tom_slots Exactly why I prefer the straight cash games. Though I should mention - my analysis above was purely for UK games. If you include Irish Lotto (which UK players can access), the odds shift again.
Game Jackpot Odds Any Prize Odds Top Prize Amount Irish Lotto 1 in 10,737,573 1 in 29 €2-19 million UK Thunderball 1 in 8,060,598 1 in 13 £500,000 Health Lottery 1 in 2,118,760 1 in 9.6 £100,000 UK Lotto 1 in 45,057,474 1 in 9.3 £2+ million Irish Lotto suddenly looks very attractive for best uk lottery odds if you're chasing that big win.
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Hold up - are we actually allowed to play Irish Lotto from the UK now? Thought there were restrictions after Brexit?
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@ukgambler99 You can play through Lottoland and similar operators. They're betting on the outcome rather than direct entry, but the prizes are the same. Technically it's a bet that matches the lottery result.
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This thread's got me thinking - maybe the real question isn't which lottery has the best odds, but whether we should be playing at all. Expected value is negative on every single one.
Like, I could put that £2 a week into Premium Bonds instead. 1 in 24,000 monthly odds of winning something, and at worst I get my money back. That's arguably better than any lottery.
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@james_uk Premium Bonds are boring though. Where's the excitement in potentially winning £25? Lottery's about the dream, not the maths. Sometimes you need that 'what if I won 15 million tonight' feeling.
That said, @betting_pro's analysis has definitely made me switch from EuroMillions to Thunderball. Better odds are better odds.
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The psychology angle is fascinating. We're all sat here calculating expected values and optimal strategies for games that are mathematically designed to take our money. It's like trying to find the 'best' way to lose weight by cutting off limbs.
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@lucy_wins Dark but accurate! Though I'd argue there's entertainment value in the ticket purchase. If you're spending £2 for 3 days of 'maybe I'll be rich' daydreaming, that's not terrible value entertainment-wise.
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Update on my original research - I've been tracking actual prize distributions for the past month and Thunderball is performing exactly as the maths predicted. Had 2 small wins (£3 each) which aligns with the 1 in 13 odds.
Meanwhile my mate who switched to EuroMillions based on jackpot size is still £40 down with nothing to show for it. Sometimes the boring choice is the right choice.
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@betting_pro That's hardly a significant sample size though is it? One month doesn't prove anything. You could flip a coin 10 times and get 8 heads, doesn't mean the coin is weighted.
Though I admit your original analysis was solid. Just saying personal anecdotes don't validate the statistics.
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Been following this thread with interest and finally bit the bullet - switched from Lotto to Health Lottery based on the odds discussion. First draw tonight, fingers crossed!
If I win that £100k I'll split it with @betting_pro for the tip
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@ukgambler99 RemindMe! 6 months 'Did ukgambler99 become a millionaire?'
Honestly though, this has been one of the most educational threads I've read. Never thought I'd be this interested in lottery mathematics. Makes you realise how little most people understand about probability.
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Plot twist - just checked and I actually won £10 on Thunderball last week and forgot about it. @betting_pro's research is literally paying dividends!
Still probably down overall since I started playing, but hey, progress is progress.