Final thought on this: blackjack with basic strategy is still gambling, not investing. But it's gambling with the lowest possible house edge. Sometimes that's the best we can ask for.
For perfect basic strategy, the probability of busting when hitting depends on your hand total:
P(bust) = Σ(cards that cause bust) / (cards remaining)
For a hard 16 against dealer 10:
P(bust) = 5/13 ≈ 38.46%
Expected value of hitting = -0.5398
Expected value of standing = -0.5419
Hit by 0.0021 - tiny margins matter over thousands of hands!